The Record

By Joan Verdon

Retailers are preparing for this year's back-to-school shopping season as if it's a test they can't afford to fail.

While the two leading retail trade groups are forecasting pent-up demand and a recovering economy will let stores earn easy A's this year, retailers aren't taking anything for granted. They're worried the still-skittish American consumer could hit them with some surprises if they don't do their homework.

A survey by the National Retail Federation found consumers expect to spend about 10 percent more for back-to-school clothes and supplies this year compared with last year. Michael Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers, is predicting back-to-school-related sales, as measured by the Commerce Department, for the three-month period of July through September, will increase "a solid 5.4 percent, potentially the strongest showing since 2005," when they rose 6.4 percent.

Other forecasters are more pessimistic. C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, said surveys his firm conducted with consumers this summer show that for many parents money still is tight. Beemer predicts a "skimpy increase" of zero up to 3 percent, compared with the robust rebound some are expecting.

Retailers based in, or that sell in, North Jersey are ramping up their promotions, emphasizing value and deals, and getting creative to lure shoppers into their stores.

Because back-to-school is the second-biggest consumer spending event of the year, "obviously retailers are making a huge push, just like they would during the [holiday] months," said NRF spokeswoman Kathy Grannis. "The promotions coming out this year are quite interesting."

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. stores last week began offering free BlackBerry or Droid smart phones to anyone who tries on a pair of jeans. Delia's was offering $10 gift cards to their jeans shoppers. And Best Buy Co. is selling a $699 Next Class laptop designed by students who told the company what they wanted in a laptop.

"Retailers are beginning to focus on, and listen more to, students when it comes to promotions this year," Grannis said.

Kathy Bradley-Riley, senior vice president at Manhattan trend forecaster The Doneger Group, said stores will be working harder than ever "to get the junior [school-age] girl or guy in the stores." A lot of the advertising being done to lure shoppers will involve social media this year, rather than traditional advertising, she said.

Retailers are going to have to be creative, and emphasize bargains to lure North Jersey teens like Kerry Mallet, 17, and Cara Dempsey, 15, students at Emerson High School, who said they learned last year how to be more price-conscious shoppers.

"With the economy, I'm not buying as many back-to-school things as I tend to," Mallet said, "I've been trying to look out for things that are versatile. I think my friends are doing that, too, trying to find things you can wear a lot of different ways."

Last year Mallet did a lot of shopping at Forever 21 and found that store had "a lot of cute clothes that are a lot cheaper than Hollister and Abercrombie & Fitch."

Dempsey also said she will be frequenting places such as Forever 21. "As you get older you stop buying expensive clothes that everyone has, and you think: This is what I like and if I buy this over here, it's $10 less, which would be cool," she said.

But both girls said a style that clothing stores are betting on this year is likely to be a winner - jeggings. Jeggings - stretchy leggings made with fabric that looks like denim, to create the illusion of super-skinny, painted-on jeans - are being touted as the must-have new look for fall.

Trend expert Bradley-Riley said the skinny pants and big tops for girls are among the biggest fashion trends for back-to-school.

Secaucus-based The Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. is banking on tot-sized jeggings, along with plaids, brightly colored prints, and low prices to boost its back-to-school sales this year. The chain's first back-to-school merchandise of the season is arriving in stores, with a new round set to arrive in August. Chief Executive Officer Jane Elfers said the company's busiest back-to-school period usually is the mid-to-later part of August.

Children's Place also is doing more to integrate shoes with its clothing displays, and making it easier for moms to accessorize outfits and buy head-to-toe ensembles.

Wayne-based Toys "R" Us Inc. also will be offering deals to get shoppers in the door, with a catalogue featuring 36 pages of back-to-school deals on items such as lunchboxes, backpacks, thermoses and other school supplies. The company is repeating a popular promotion from previous years - a free lunch kit with purchase of a backpack. "That's a very popular deal. Our customers loved it," in previous years, said Richard Barry, vice president-general merchandise, for Toys "R" Us.

Toys "R" Us this week was offering buy one, get 50 percent off deals on art supplies, workbooks, flash cards, stationery and other school supplies.

Lisa Hermann, marketing director at Westfield Garden State Plaza in Paramus, said early indications are that North Jersey's largest mall will have a "good" back-to-school season. While the shopping center doesn't release sales data, "traffic at the mall has been very healthy" as the season begins, she said. The mall is using Facebook to promote deals at the shopping center and is sponsoring a "haul video" contest in which shoppers will be asked to submit videos showing off purchases made at the mall. The best video wins a $500 gift card.At the Best Buy store at The Fashion Center in Paramus, Chris Texidor, a supervisor for the store's Geek Squad team of computer experts, said students are gravitating toward various electronic devices.

College and high school students are interested in the company's $699 Next Class laptop that was designed to meet suggestions from college students who said they wanted a computer with certain pre-installed software, a back-lit keyboard and other features.

College students also are buying portable hard drives and flash drives that let them transport their work from their dorm to a library computer, and the $26 Insignia Soundbar, which enhances the sound quality on a laptop and turns it into a device for playing music. Middle school students and their parents are buying more netbooks - mini computers that are smaller and less expensive than full-sized laptops.

A survey by PriceGrabber.com found that 15 percent of elementary school students will start the school year with a new laptop, up from 7 percent in 2009.

A key issue for retailers as the back-to-school season gets under way is whether consumers once again will wait for markdowns before buying.

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